The impact of demographic change on policy indicators and reforms
In this paper, we project demographic changes for the next twenty years, by means of multi-state population projections (Lipro-projections) by age, sex and household position on the one hand and by age, sex and educational attainment on the other. On the basis of these projections we obtain forecasted household weights by calibration. The future population is approximated by static re-weighting of the EU-SILC 2008 dataset, which is a representative sample of the population in the base year. We assume a modest real growth rate of 1%. We investigate the budgetary and distributional effects of the obtained demographic and economic evolution. The importance of demographic change is further illustrated by its influence on the effects of some policy reforms.